"In the end, the public will be left to bear the rising electricity costs without being able to help themselves because the government isn’t promoting these initiatives. The PDP appears to primarily benefit the energy sector, whereas it should serve the interests of the entire country,"
The Power Development Plan (PDP) is Thailand's framework for electricity development and a critical national infrastructure plan. The PDP would typically specify how much electricity the country will need over the next 20 years, providing the types of power plants, fuel sources, and locations to meet this demand.
In June 2024, the Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO) held public hearings on the draft Power Development Plan 2024-2040 (PDP 2024) and the draft Gas Plan 2024-2040. The hearings took place from 12 to 23 June 2024, with online public hearing held on 17 and 19 June, across four regions. Additionally, the public was invited to submit opinions through the Facebook page EPPO Thailand and the website www.eppo.go.th from 19 to 23 June 2024.
Following the public hearings, the draft plans will be submitted to the Subcommittee on the Development of Thailand’s Power Development Plan (PDP Subcommittee). From there, they will proceed to the meetings of the Energy Policy Administrative Committee (EPAC), the National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) and the last stage to the Cabinet for approval. The PDP 2024 is expected to be officially announced by September 2024.
Some members of the public expressed disagreement with the PDP 2024 public hearings organized by EPPO, claiming insufficient inclusivity in the hearing process. Concerns were raised that the draft plan might favor large corporations in electricity trading while excluding the public from participating in electricity production. There were calls to extend the hearing period and disclose more information to the public.
The Isranews Agency (www.isranews.org) conducted research and interviews with representatives from government agencies, academics and civil society to explore key questions.
'Does the PDP 2024 draft allocate benefits fairly to all stakeholders? How does it benefit the public? And does it favor large corporations?'
What is the PDP?
The Power Development Plan (PDP) is Thailand's master plan for electricity production, outlining long-term energy procurement over 15–20 years. It serves as a framework to guide the country's energy policy direction. According to the Ministry of Energy, the PDP 2024 draft has a primary goal of achieving Carbon Neutrality by 2050 and Net Zero Emissions by 2065.
The plan highlights three key features:
1. Energy Security which is to ensure a reliable electricity supply, supporting new forms of production and consumption such as self-generated electricity, the growth of electric vehicles, energy storage systems and smart grids. Also the introduction to a new metric for reserve margin calculation based on the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE), targeting outages of no more than 0.7 days/year (16 hours/year). This aims to reassure investors and industries about consistent power availability.
2. Reasonable Pricing which is to maintain reasonable electricity price rates a, not exceeding 4 THB/unit, while balancing costs through diverse fuel sources.
3. Sustainability which is to increase the share of renewable energy to 51% by 2037 (up from 36%) and reduce CO2 emissions in electricity production from 86 million tons to 61.8 million tons.
Government Perspective: Pros and Cons of the PDP 2024
Mr. Sarat Prakobchat, Deputy Director of the Energy Policy and Planning Office, highlighted several advantages of the PDP 2024 draft: 1. Energy Security: Thailand will achieve a stable and reliable electricity system that meets the required standards, 2. Clean Energy: The proportion of renewable energy (RE) will reach 51%, reducing reliance on fossil fuel power plants which aligns with both domestic and international environmental regulations, 3. Reasonable Pricing: focusing clean energy therefore the plan aims to utilize production methods with manageable costs while ensuring energy sources remain environmentally friendly, and 4. Inclusive Participation: electricity production will involve all sectors, not just major operators or the state electricity authorities. Private producers, including ordinary citizens, can participate through initiatives like community solar projects, ensuring a balanced distribution of energy production across different times and regions.
"These are the advantages. Additionally, the new plan will align with future electricity production and consumption system. What has changed from the past is that we will focus more on clean energy. There will be changes in consumption behavior, supported by the implementation and incorporation of a Smart Grid. This, overall, will be a major benefit” Mr. Sarat said.
'Smart Grid is an intelligent electricity system for production, distribution and supply of energy, which reduces resource usage while enhancing efficiency, safety, sustainability and environmentally friendly.'
Mr. Sarat pointed out the disadvantages which are 1. RE management could be challenging because it is not available 24 hours a day. Special management techniques are required, including the use of batteries alongside energy production. Investments in infrastructure or equipment to support this require additional costs, 2. The widespread use of air conditioners in Thailand may require incentives or support from the government. Part of the cost will be electricity bill, but the EPPO is working to keep prices at a manageable level, 3. The future electricity market may promote competition, such as private entities buying and selling electricity among themselves. This could have an impact on the existing electricity system, but any changes will be carefully monitored and managed.
Academic Perspective: Pros and Cons of the PDP 2024
Assoc. Prof. Chalee Charoenlapnopparat, a faculty member at the Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University, discussed the advantages of the PDP 2024 draft:
1. This is the first plan that sets the proportion of renewable energy to more than half of total energy. By 2580, Thailand will generate more than 51% of its electricity from renewable sources comparing to 49% of fossil fuels. This is a significant step toward renewable energy.
2. The plan makes preparations to the direction of more renewable energy, such as the development of large-scale battery storage. One example is using water reservoirs to store energy. During the day, water is pumped uphill and stored, then released to generate electricity at night, increasing the proportion of renewable energy in the system.
3. The plan prepares for smart grid systems such as Demand Response during peak electricity demand, it coordinates with large electricity users to reduce consumption, offering compensation in return. This approach reduces the need to build additional power plants to meet peak demands.
4. The PDP 2024 emphasizes energy security over other dimensions. It establishes a low probability of power outages, with a target of only 0.7 days per year. This is lower than many countries, indicating a more stable system, although it requires substantial backup power plants to ensure security.
Assoc. Prof. Chalee reflects on the disadvantages of the PDP 2024 which are 1. while the 51% renewable energy goal is good, it still falls short. Thailand has set a carbon neutrality goal for 2050, which means the country must reduce carbon emissions to zero. The electricity sector must also aim for near-zero carbon production.
"We need to increase the proportion of renewable energy faster. Otherwise, we won’t reach Thailand's goal. Global recommendations suggest that electricity production should be carbon-neutral by 2040 to meet the carbon neutrality target by 2050," said Assoc. Prof. Chalee.
And 2. The PDP 2024 includes plans to build new power plants, continuing the use of coal until the end of the plan, with an additional 3,600 MW of power from natural gas. This means that outdated and unnecessary plants are being constructed. Power plants are carbon emitters, which moves Thailand further away from its carbon neutrality goal for 2050.
"When coal is used, carbon dioxide emissions increase. For every unit of electricity we generate, the carbon footprint remains at about 400–500 grams per unit. This carbon footprint is found in products exported from Thailand, which may face restrictions or taxes due to their environmental impact, reducing our competitiveness. We’re not fully utilizing our renewable energy potential and continue to rely on power plants and natural gas instead," said Assoc. Prof. Chalee.
3. The public has no role in electricity production. The PDP 2024 is entirely based on large power plants. Energy sector has no quota for citizens. The draft PDP 2024 fails to promote rooftop solar, overlooking the involvement of the public.
4. The PDP 2024 states that Thailand must ensure electricity security, with a low risk of power outages, to justify the construction of new power plants. In the end, this will lead to increased power generation and consequently, higher electricity costs for the public. It is unlikely that electricity prices will drop under the current PDP 2024 plan.
5. This plan still heavily depends on foreign energy sources, disregarding our own potential. Hydropower and imported electricity from countries like Laos make up 15% of our energy. This means that if there are issues, such as a drought or inadequate reservoirs, we could lose 15% of our power supply. We’re also relying more on imported natural gas, even as domestic reserves in the Gulf of Thailand decrease. The plan also doesn’t promote biomass energy. It’s clear that the plan can still be improved," Assoc. Prof. Chalee added.
PDP 2024 Plan Benefits Large Corporations
Assoc. Prof. Chalee stated that the PDP 2024 plan focuses on the development of large power plants, making it impossible for smaller producers to establish such facilities. The plan includes the construction of 3,600 megawatts of natural gas power plants and nuclear power plants that are mainly controlled by the Electricity Authority. Additionally, the plan aims for 51% of the country’s energy to come from renewable sources, primarily solar farms.
“All of this is driven by large investors who have the financial resources to invest in these projects. It doesn’t involve small-scale public participation and not included in the plan. This PDP is for large corporations capable of building power plants,” Assoc. Prof. Chalee added.
Public Affected by PDP 2024 Plan
Assoc. Prof. Chalee stated that, in addition to the inevitable rise in electricity prices, Thailand will lose its competitiveness compared to other countries due to its failure to meet the commitments made on the global stage regarding climate change. If Thailand doesn’t follow through on its promises, it will lose credibility and foreign investment may decline. Many companies have set goals to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2035-2040, and the PDP’s failure to align with these goals could cost the country valuable investment opportunities. Furthermore, the public will be excluded from opportunities for involvement in electricity production.
"In the end, the public will be left to bear the rising electricity costs without being able to help themselves because the government isn’t promoting these initiatives. The PDP appears to primarily benefit the energy sector, whereas it should serve the interests of the entire country," Assoc. Prof. Chalee added.
The Way Out for the Public: Voice Your Opinions and Sign Petitions
Assoc. Prof. Chalee mentioned that the public has been actively involved in driving the PDP 2024 plan from the very beginning. Since the draft was first released, there have been numerous government-hosted forums where people voiced their opinions, as well as private sector, academic and industry discussions. Over dozens of seminars were held between June and August this year.
"I think this have made an impact on those who are shaping the PDP to a certain extent and the new draft may differ from the previous one.” But we can do more to monitor the progress whether the second draft will address its weaknesses or be improved or not. If those changes don’t happen, it means we need to come together, sign petitions and push for more. We should express our opinions and urge the representatives we elected to take action on these matters. Share this with your friends and family and encourage more people to voice their opinions" Assoc. Prof. Chalee also added.
Does the Government’s Public Hearing Mean the Public is Truly Involved?
Assoc. Prof. Chalee explained that "public involvement" has many dimensions, such as participation after a plan is released, allowing people to give feedback. As for the PDP 2024 drafting procedure, public involvement is considered limited in terms of the feedback process and also the short duration of the hearing period. This contrasts with the previous PDP plan, which held forums in five regions over several months to gather public input.
"The PDP 2024 draft had only about 10 days for feedback and the public was never involved in the plan's creation. People had no opportunity to comment before the draft was finalized. We never saw the draft before it was published. There was no participation in the planning process at all, except only for the academic sector, the subcommittees working on the PDP and invited experts" Assoc. Prof. Chalee also added.
Public Perspective: PDP 2024 Benefits Large Corporations
Mrs. Maliwan Nakwirot, Chairwoman of the Mae Moh Patients’ Rights Network, stated that the PDP 2024 plan undoubtedly favors large corporations. The issue with planning for the next decade is how the PDP will align with national development, as the heavy energy users in Thailand are corporations.
"Currently, whether in the industrial or business sector, we’re seeing a decline. For instance, shops and factories are relocating overseas. Yet, the Government is telling us energy consumption might increase. The question is, increase for what? What will it be used for? Are we really going to build more power plants and produce more energy? Today, we still have plenty of excess electricity. With factories shutting down and companies moving abroad, doesn't this mean energy consumption should be decreasing?"
"When EGAT claims it’s losing money, I don’t think that’s entirely accurate. If EGAT is purchasing electricity from elsewhere, why isn’t Thailand using the electricity it produces? Why must we buy power from other countries? There’s a contradiction. The industries and factories that use a lot of electricity are the same ones now facing layoffs. Meanwhile, PEA are raising rates, which is an additional burden on the public" Maliwan added.
Maliwan said that from another perspective, the PDP 2024 draft plan definitely benefits large corporations because state enterprises could be privatized, as EGAT was once privatized in the past. The public fought back successfully and she was one of those who opposed privatization. She views the future as one where the public will be forced into a weaker position. If privatization happens again, where will the public find the strength to resist? Energy prices will continue to rise and the ERC itself cannot manage the energy sector fairly. The public will bear the burden of electricity debt.
"I would like to urge the ERC to do its job properly by overseeing the energy sector fairly for the people across the country. Right now, there is no fairness. They just raise electricity rates, and we’re left wondering what the next rate will be. You will lock in the rates, but we shouldn’t have to live in fear that the rates will go up. Regarding Thailand’s potential as a hot and sunny country, do you think the solution to reduce electricity costs should be to promote the use of solar power? We should have easy and free access to solar power. There should be no complicated rules for households. If people pay less for electricity because they have their own backup power from solar panels, that’s the most fair solution. It would make us more sustainable and reduce costs significantly. We don’t need to keep thinking about complex energy plans and building new power plants. You should build them on the rooftops of households, not for private companies," Maliwan also added.
The PDP 2024 plan does not benefit large corporations
Mr. Sarat confirmed that the PDP 2024 plan does not benefit any specific group and takes into consideration the public benefit, considering the overall benefit to the country. In the case of large power plants, fossil fuel plants and gas plants, the new plan reduces the number of fossil fuel and gas-powered plants. It does not reflect support for any particular corporate group. Additionally, the share of renewable energy plants increases, with the EPPO considering the potential of these projects, some of which will be allocated to the state-owned electricity generation company.
“As for renewable energy plants, we haven't decided who will be allocated to. We need to assess the performance of the Electricity Authority. If it performs well, we will expand the target. Regarding new fossil fuel plants, no decisions have been made on who will run them. However, I can confirm that it is not designed to favor large corporations, and the number of gas-powered plants will decrease. Renewable energy will increase, but the allocation will depend on the potential of the stakeholders involved. There will also be a focus on community solar, allowing the public to participate in electricity generation,” said Sarat.
Public Involvement with the Modification of the Draft PDP 2024
Sarat stated that every opinion from the public is being considered by the EPPO. They review which proposals are suitable for modification and will submit them to the PDP drafting committee, which includes representatives from the Ministry of Energy and the private sector, with experts helping to assess various issues. However, EPPO may not adopt every suggestion, as it must align with three key principles: 1. Security, 2. Pricing and 3. Environmental impact. While all proposals are reviewed, only those that fit within these principles will be considered for improvement.
Regarding the PDP 2024, EPPO has reduced the projected electricity demand based on assumptions about future usage. They rely on official data from the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), a trusted source for long-term electricity demand forecasting. This forecast considers not only short-term but also long-term trends.
"The fact is the actual electricity usage in 2023 and 2024 was higher than forecasted, with the peak demand in 2023 and 2024 exceeding predictions by 0.1% (the highest level of demand). In 2023, actual demand was 2.3% higher than forecasted, and in 2024, it was almost 4% higher. This serves as evidence that we didn't overestimate demand. One key factor is likely the higher temperatures, which increase electricity consumption. Our forecast must account for these changes," said Sarat.
These are the three perspectives from the government, academics and civil sector. It can be seen that both academics and civil sector share the opinion that the draft PDP 2024 benefits large corporate groups. Meanwhile, the government believes that the draft PDP 2024 already allows public participation in power production and the plan does not yet specify who will be granted the rights to implement these projects.
However, how the EPPO will modify the draft PDP 2024, whether it will include proposals from the public and how much the public will be allowed to participate in power production remains to be seen.
Additionally, the announcement of the adoption of the PDP 2024 plan in September 2024 may be delayed due to the change in government.
Isranews Agency | สำนักข่าวอิศรา 