Still a long road to durable peace in the Deep South
The most popular question that I was lately asked by fellow journalists was: "Has the unrest situation in the Deep South improved?" This is a simple question but it is very difficult to answer because there are various perspectives related to the situation.
Ask men in the military and their answer is that the situation as a whole has improved, citing the statistics of violent incidents which show a steady decline since 2007. The declining trend is more obvious after security officers decided to separate violent incidents related to insurgency from ordinary criminal incidents such as murders motivated by business conflict or drugs-related violence.
But in the eyes of the Southern Border Provinces Administration Centre under the leadership of Police Colonel Thawee Sodsong who has been vested with more powers by the new SBPAC law, there is a new sense of hope among the local Malay Muslims that they will be treated more fairly and their grievances will be addressed.
For me, my assessment of the unrest situation is based on two issues: Firstly, did the violent incidents actually drop? Secondly, have the local people’s sentiments toward the government or governmental organizations improved?
As for the first issue, given the statistics which show a steady decline of violent incidents, we have to admit that the situation has improved. But at a closer look beyond the surface especially at the seriousness of some of the incidents, it is doubtful that the situation has improved. A few hours before I wrote this article, a large group of Islamic insurgents travelling in two pick-up trucks and three motorcycles attacked an army base in Rueso district of Narathiwat. One soldier and two villagers were killed and scores wounded whereas the insurgents were believed to suffer two killed but their bodies were taken away.
It should be noted that the size of the attacking force in this recent incident was quite significant. Similar major attacks were reported previously such as the raid of a development unit in Tambon Pak Bang, The Pa district of Songkhla on August 24 last year and the attack on an army unit in Ra-ngae district of Narathiwat on January 19 of the same year.
Police General Adul Saengsingkaew who was recently named the new national police chief said that the insurgents had adopted a new tactic by mobilizing their men from various localities to stage major attacks for psychological effects in order to give an impression that they have the capability to stage major attacks despite the fact that they are facing manpower shortage.
But from my own experience and from our information from different reliable sources, the contrary seems to be true. The number of armed insurgents has not reduced but they have switched to staging major attacks occasionally instead of staging minor attacks on daily basis.
Another disturbing fact is that the insurgency movement has been able to enlist new recruits steadily. It was reliably reported that a propaganda campaign has been quietly launched by the insurgents to instill hatred among young Muslims against Jews which, in their definition, mean Israeli, the United States and western countries.
The Muslim youths were brainwashed to boycott “Jewish” products and it was reported that many of these youths had stolen "Jewish" goods from department stores in the Deep South and had them destroyed. The report was corroborated with an admission from an executive of a chain department store that shoplifting incidence in the Deep South was higher than elsewhere.
On the second issue about the sentiments of the local Muslims towards the state, my observation is that the situation has not improved and the locals still harbor deep mistrust of the government and government officials. Soldiers whose main responsibility is to maintain peace and order in the region are still seen as the enemy especially when the soldiers are armed with emergency decree which give them the power to make arrests or searches without warrants.
But many of the arrests and prosecutions were proven to be groundless as 78 percent of the cases that went before the court were acquitted. As such, soldiers were often viewed negatively as villains by the locals despite the fact that they have done many good works for them.
General Waipote Srinual, former director of National Intelligence Agency, once said that the military should not be responsible for solving unrest problem in the Deep South as their role is to defend the country against aggression from outside intruders.