Is it the start of the second round of insurgency war?

The surge of violence against soft targets such as women, Buddhists in particular, in recent months and the latest car bomb attack in Betong downtown on July 25 have raised a big question mark about whether these signal the launch of the second round of war of insurgency against the Thai state and its people by the Islamic militant groups.

          At least one veteran security expert of the southern unrest problem who declined to be named believes so that the militant groups have started the second round of insurgency war.  The first round, he explained began on January 4, 2004 with the daring raid on an armoury in which the raiding militants escaped with more than 400 firearms, mostly M16 assault rifles and last until last year with the collapse of the Malaysia-brokered peace talks between the Thai government and the Barisan Revolusi Nasionale separatist group.

          The security officer explained that the deliberate attacks against Buddhist Thai women and the elderly were meant to put pressure on the Thai government or the military junta as it is the case now.

          Although there were more than 40 car and motorcycle bomb attacks during the first round of the war,  similar attacks this year appeared to be shifted to targets thought to be safe such as the motorcycle bomb attack at the car park of Kok Po district hospital, the bomb explosion at a cock fight ring, also in Kok Po district of Pattani and the car bomb attack in downtown Betong on July 25.

          There was an unverified report that hundreds of young Malay Muslims had been sent into Malaysia for secret training to become "permudor" or supporters and "soldiers" of the separatist movements.

          Meanwhile, the rotation system has witnessed unexperienced authorities being posted to the restive region many of whom have the tendency of not using the services of the veterans.

          The use of conventional military tactics such as the setup of roadblocks to check cars and motorcycles for suspected militants or weapons will not be effective in preventing the militants from getting in and leaving townships because there are many side roads through which they can sneak in and out with ease.

          Even in the mountainous town of Betong where there is only one road leading to the town from the Thai side, the militants have proven that they could enter the town, set off a car bomb and then escaped.

          Although General Prayuth Chan-ocha, head of the National Council for Peace and Order, has announced that the junta would proceed with holding peace talks with the separatist gangs, BRN for instance, under one condition that the talk will not touch on the issue of self-determination, there has been no sign about when the talk will resume after it broke down in the middle of last year.

          For the militants, the issues of injustice and poverty are merely side issues to arouse sympathy and support from the Malay Muslim population and from overseas.  But the real issue that they have been fight for is power and self governance.

          The NCPO or the interim government which is yet to be set up must be more well-prepared to deal with the violent incidents which may be perpetrated by militant groups which may disagree with or which are not excluded in the peace talk process in case the talk resumes.

          The question is whether the powers that be are ready to recruit or assign men with experiences and skills to work in the troubled region or just their own people so they can get promoted.

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Caption : Car bomb attacked in Betong downtown on July 25.

Note : This article was translated from the editorial of Isra news agency