Why the sudden surge of violence?
The recent surge of violence in the deep South can be attributable to three factors, according to informed security sources.
The first factor is reprisal attacks. The separatists stepped up attacks in reprisal against escalated military operations which include raids of suspected hideouts, searches and arrests which have resulted to the seizure of substantial amount of war weapons and ammunition, killing and arrest of several suspected separatists.
Of particular significance was the raid of a suspected hideout in Rueso district of Narathiwat on October 5. Two police officers, including a lieutenant colonel, and four suspected separatists were killed, one of them was identified as Abdulorhing Talisor or Black Pele whose picture wearing a black mask and holding an assault rifle was recently posted on Facebook. The other was Osman Denglamae, a high-ranking RKK member.
The second factor is escalated military operations in the adjoining areas of Raman district of Yala, Narathiwat’s Rueso district and Pattani’s Thung Yang Daeng districts. The areas are known to be the hotbed of underground and separatists’ activities.
Two encirclement operations were launched in August in Rueso district, resulting to the extrajudicial killing of two suspected separatists. Also, five policemen of an anti-fuel smuggling squad were killed in Thung Yang Daeng district on September 11 in an ambush believed by separatists working hands in gloves with oil smugglers.
The escalated suppression operations were believed to have provoked the separatists to retaliate in revenge.
The third factor is the new round of peace talk tentatively scheduled on October 20. There are different theories. One of them put forward by the National Security Council insisted that most of the violent incidents were perpetrated by separatist groups, including those within the BRN, which oppose to the peace talks. This means that there are many of them and they are coordinated given the latest wave of arson and bomb attacks against more than ATMs in Yala, Narathiwat, Pattani and Songkhla.
Another theory suggests that the escalated violence was meant to put pressure on the government to heed the BRN’s five demands or, at least, to show clear position regarding the demands.
One informed security source said there was a suggestion that the next peace talk be postponed from October 20until after October 25 which marks the anniversary of the Tak Bai tragedy so that there will not be an excuse to use the incident to fan more violence.
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Caption : One of the violence in the deep South on October, 9